Alternative Ideas for American Economic Development

The global financial crisis has clearly illustrated that there is a serious vacuum of ideas on what to do next as a civilization. Majority of the public senses (on various levels) that key leaderships of many Western states do not offer much more beyond printing more money, socially brutal austerity, etc. Playing for time and looting are not solid ideas and everybody knows it. This inevitably opens up society to ideas from below which will eventually result in part of the elite siding with these ideas to co-opt them and ride them to power.

In United States, we saw the libertarian critique meme and the reactionary “going back to FDR policies” meme rapidly become dominant online over the last 2 years. Collapsist and neofeudalism memes are also about to become dominant. Collapsism in particular forces future oriented thought. The non-Internet world is quickly following behind since it took researchers a year or so to educate themselves about the fraud that caused the crisis, to put their books out, and then another few months for people to read the books. Various socially visible pundits can now defer to books as authoritative sources in speaking up. The market for new type of demagogy (talk radio being the old type) is nowhere near to being saturated.

This awakening resembles a sort of a popular front in the making since people from diverse ideological backgrounds are creating a consensus of what they are against (federal reserve corruption, military eating most resources, financial oligarchy and its personal lawyer/butler [US congress]). A marriage of convenience of this sort is usually created when all other options are exhausted and it will split into petty infighting once the current regime is changed.

All the accelerating muck racking and massive corruption exposures going on currently will begin to create a dissident critical mass in the near future. This is due to the gently exponential curve that is word of mouth communication and most importantly due to some elites sensing that popular sentiment now allows certain things to be safely discussed on a national level. Like in a jury herd dynamic, a minority of consistent and tireless individuals can swing the entire group whether at elite level, the level of a bar or church, or national level. The vacuum of workable ideas in leadership allows such informational waves to spread and take hold rapidly. It may have taken Christianity 300 years to become a dominant meme but with present communication technology, informational “viruses” can do the trick in just years.

In interesting times like these, small but very narrative consistent groups have disproportionate amount of influence. Notice how quickly Ron Paul’s faction went from being an ignored laughing stock to being a respected dissident movement (the mere fact that some oligarchs partially co-opted it with funding demonstrates level of genuine popular support). The great budding coalition of groups who usually don’t want anything to do with one another (but who realize they got a common enemy) is gaining strength by the week. The awakening process does not even need to take hold of most people. A society historically needs maybe 1/4 to 1/3 of people to substantially switch their world view in order for real transition to start happening. 1/3 of the population can always be counted on to defend status quo to the last while 1/3 can be counted on to be an apathetic mushy middle that joins whoever seems to be winning or is more popular.

How will ideas be judged, what determines which will win out?

Market of ideas is limited by two things.

1) Practicality of an idea. This means the degree to which an idea is compatible with unfolding social and physical dynamics of human civilization (can’t have genuine feudalism, monarchies, or theocracies in 21st century with hundreds of millions of educated people). In a way, the strongest idea is one which is predictive of where we’re pretty much headed anyway. This criteria can be said to be desirability of the good (functionality determining desirability).

2) How quickly it can be internalized by the public at large. If one needs to read too many books to understand and accept an idea, then it really is not that great. An idea having been popular previously at some point in history greatly helps with this. This criteria can be said to be the knowledgeableness of the buyer to determine which good is desirable.

So what’s on the market presently?

I am going to focus on United States since in many ways the problems of United States show to the world the problems that they themselves will face very soon. The ideas that the American people adapt to resurrect themselves will eventually (if not immediately) be influential on a planetary scale after a couple of decades. The following are listed in no particular order of importance.

a) Reactionary “going back to FDR style” Keynesian monetarism, sound money, and rapid infrastructural development

b) Reactionary “going back to the John Quincy Adams style” American credit system, sound money, and rapid infrastructural development

c) Reactionary “going back to industrial robber baron style” brief and unstable period of something resembling what the libertarian faction wants. Some haphazard and rapid ego driven infrastructural development.

d) American version of Leninist New Economic Policy and very rapid infrastructural development

e) Emulation of Chinese style oligarchic dictatorship and rapid infrastructural development

f) Post-monetarist energy accounting Technocracy and very rapid infrastructural development

SPOILER ALERT:

It’ll end up being f) eventually but not before one or more of the others are torturously tried, muddled through, combined, and recombined. In effect, a)-e) are a connecting bridge of experimentation that will make f) possible in due time. Some areas of the country and the world may experience de facto libertarian c) environment due to only the local oligarchs having developmental resources (see Abramovich in his post as governor of Chukotka). Such frightful old school oligarchy should not really spread too quickly before rapid backlash into other choices. There is also the matter of deflation stifling its development. Therefore the libertarian faction is primarily useful as a vibrant “rural power” part of the popular front. They will quickly fade as America’s socioeconomic failure discredits capitalism (fairly or unfairly) in the eyes of humanity at large.

Emulation of Chinese police state e) and industrial worker exploitation may be preferred by one wing of American oligarchy (while the other wing seems to want perpetual banana republic style oligarchic military dictatorship with sprinkles of c)). This is due to China already combining various structural characteristics of a)-d) in one package. American version of Putinism is the other “softer” alternative to this. Neither are sustainable long term since they do not address the problem of exponential progress of technology consistently increasing planetary unemployment. There will also be the issue of China entering it’s “America in the 1930s” period of industrial depression and crisis of overproduction (which in turn stands to discredit that country briefly in the eyes of the world).

We can begin to see how process of elimination reduces the extent to which the current ideas on the market will be utilized. For the older generation, some elements of a) can be used to provide them peace of mind, continuity towards the end of life, and as marketing to politically sell rapid increase in state intervention. Then, for the younger generations, the mythical elements of b) combined with the edginess of d) may follow to demonstrate that rapid infrastructural progress really is occurring and to provide the future American regime with legitimacy (it’ll definitely be needing it). Transition period of the next 30 years will definitely be turbulent and interesting for all involved. We must consistently remain vigilant throughout the process to make sure the rich do not derail the experimentation into something truly frightening (which would make us wish for the old USA back).

Risk Management Should Be Top of Mind – Stop Making Excuses

The global financial crisis is a perfect example of what can happen when nations and companies ignore risks (read: do not heed the warning signs) in the hope that the inevitable will not and can not happen. There is no time like the present to implement the company contingency plan. Below is a framework to help your team start the process of developing a risk management program. Not only is it the smart thing to do; it is the right thing to do.

Step One: Bite the bullet and get started. If you are like most companies, identifying potential risks is probably the hardest part of developing a risk management scenario. In fact, this is cited as the main reason why most companies put it off. Not only is this just an excuse; it is lazy and irresponsible thinking. If your management team is at a loss as to how to get started, you are in luck. Standard & Poor (S&P) has created a list of four major risk categories that can be just the springboard you need to hold your first brainstorming session. Listed in alphabetically order, they are:

Environmental Risks:

  • Business continuity
  • Business market environment
  • Environmental
  • Liability lawsuits
  • Natural disaster/ weather
  • Pandemic
  • Physical damage
  • Political risk
  • Regulatory/ legislative
  • Terrorism

Financial Risks:

  • Capital availability
  • Credit counter party
  • Financial market risk
  • Inflation
  • Interest rates
  • Liquidity

Management Risks:

  • Corporate governance
  • Data security
  • Employee health and safety
  • Intellectual property
  • Labor disputes
  • Labor skills shortage
  • M&A/restructuring
  • Managing complexity
  • Outsourcing problems
  • Project management
  • Reputation

Supply Risks:

  • Commodity prices
  • Supply chain

Step Two: After your team has reviewed the list, it is now time to check off the risks that apply, even tangentially, to your company.

Step Three: Review the S&P list again to see which of the risks may be catastrophic and damaging to your company. These risks warrant further consideration even if the likelihood of their occurring is low.

Step Four: Using consensus, identify three to five of the most critical risks your company faces.

Step Five: Create an action plan that deals with the critical risks you have identified. The action plan should include next steps and target dates.

Step Six: Follow up on the action plan that you just created. Make sure it is executed properly.

Step Seven: Evaluate whether your next step is to dig deeper into the action plan you have created, add additional projects to the plan, or create a more robust action plan. The first two choices suggest that you begin the process again, starting at step two. Alternatively, if you need to consider a full-blown risk management system, move forward knowing you have benefited from the initial work.

Risk management takes time, but think of the alternative. You do not want to be in a position of would have, could have, should have – if only we knew. There are many outside resources that can help you get started, so do not delay this call to action. You owe it to yourself and your shareholders.

When the economic climate changes as dramatically and as frequently as it does nowadays, contingency planning and risk management should be on every executive dashboard. Face your risks squarely and come up with a flexible ERM plan. Do not wait until you are forced to make a Mayday call to a world that is embroiled in its own crisis.

Jobs Report Sucker Punches Recovery!

In this column a few weeks ago I likened the economy and markets to being in the eye of a hurricane.

There had been some destruction in global stock markets created by the debt crisis in Europe, but the storm quieted down after the surprise EU/IMF announcement of a $1 trillion debt rescue plan. There was hope the danger had passed. But I suggested that, as in the eye of a hurricane, the other side of the storm was yet to arrive, and that sometimes it arrives with more fury than the first side.

It does seem we are now experiencing the back side of the financial storm and that it may indeed result in more serious damage.

The rescue package brought hope that the European debt crisis could be confined to Greece, that the European economic recovery would continue, that European banks would avoid serious fallout from the debt crisis.

The return of a positive outlook was in no small way related to confidence that the economic recovery in the U.S. would continue and become more robust, and that China’s strong economy would also continue to support the global recovery.

The Chinese stock market did not demonstrate the same confidence. It topped out last July and has been in a bear market since, having declined 27%. And in recent weeks it became clear what the Chinese stock market saw coming. The Chinese government has begun taking dramatic steps to take some air out of the Chinese real estate bubble, and stock markets are well aware of what happens to economies when real estate bubbles burst.

Meanwhile, the Greek debt crisis was contagious and spread to Portugal and Spain, with concerns rising about Ireland and Italy.

However, there was still confidence that the U.S. economy would continue to improve, even though some important parts of last year’s stimulus efforts, particularly for the housing industry, had expired at the end of April.

But then the latest economic reports began coming in.

In recent days it was reported that Pending Home Sales rose 6% in April, but that it was likely only due to a rush by home-buyers to get purchase contracts signed before the April 31 expiration of the home-buyer rebate program.

And sure enough, a few days later the Mortgage Bankers Association reported that while overall mortgage applications had increased 0.9% in the last week of May, the increase had been due to existing home-owners applying to refinance their mortgages to take advantage of low mortgage rates. Mortgage rates from those looking to buy a home, so-called ‘purchase applications’, had declined for the fourth straight week since the home-buyer bonus plan expired at the end of April, and are 40% below their level at the end of April. That cannot bode well for the next home sales reports.

Meanwhile, MasterCard’s SpendingPulse reported that retail sales in May were 3.7% below May of last year, the second month of declines after sales improved in the first quarter.

Consumers and the stock market really needed a strong employment report to offset those negative reports, if confidence that the economy continues to improve was to be kept alive.

Unfortunately, the jobs report Friday morning was dismal. The Labor Department reported that only 431,000 new jobs were created in May versus the consensus forecast of 515,000. And most of the new jobs, 411,000, were temporary census-taker jobs. Minus those, there were only 20,000 new jobs created. An awful report.

The unemployment rate did decline to 9.7% from the previous 9.9%. But even that was questionable as a positive, since it was primarily due to 322,000 unemployed dropping out of the unemployment picture because they gave up looking for a job.

Adding to the concerns, ill-winds continued to blow in from Europe with the statement of an official in Hungary that his country now faces a debt crisis similar to that of Greece.

The back side of hurricanes do pass, and the continuation of the financial hurricane will also pass. But the stock market must now worry about the damage that it leaves behind, not so much whether it has raised the odds of the economy sliding back into a double-dip recession, but the damage it has done to forecasts of a V-shaped recovery and the robust improvements in corporate earnings that have been factored into stock prices.

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